James Paxton, Seattle Mariners (photo by hj_west, via Flicker).
For many people, baseball is the king of fantasy sports. It’s the one where you feel most like an actual general manager. It’s tough not to be a homer in fantasy baseball and pick everyone that you believe in as a fan. Especially, these young Seattle Mariners.
This is a unique top 300, based on a composite that I created from Steamer, Rotowire, Rotochamp, Zips, and my projections that have many other factors built-in. You’ll also see that each player has a rotisserie (5×5) and a head-to-head (results-based accumulation) break down. Additionally, the analysis presumes a traditional 12 team league.
Roto = Rotisserie Baseball and has nothing to do with cooking. Typically a 5×5 style league can be played weekly or for an entire season with a combination of accumulative statistics and average statistics.
H2H = Head-to-Head can be roto but can also be accumulative. These are always done daily or weekly.
5X5 = 10 total categories are measured, five for hitters, five for pitchers. The five traditional categories for hitters; Average, Home Runs, Runs, RBIs, and SBs. The five traditional categories for pitchers; ERA, Wins, Strikeouts, Saves, and WHIP.
Dynasty League = A league that has future value as much as current season value. Typically a dynasty league is made up of multiple keepers as well as a farm system for prospects.
The Rankings
Here are the 2021 Mariners and when it’s appropriate to target them in your Fantasy drafts.
Ty France is off to a tremendous start for spring training, and all this kid does is hit. In 2019, he batted .399 in 348 plate appearances at AAA. That was followed by a great 2020, where he hit .305 between San Deigo and Seattle.
He’s slated to be the M’s full-time DH with some utility aspects as well. This guy is a stud and a steal in roto leagues. In the composite rankings, France finished outside the top 300. In my progression algorithm, I had him in the top 150. While I’m giving him sleeper status, his average, power, and RBI opportunities will be significant.
In accumulative leagues, it will be about playing time and where he hits in the Mariners lineup. I think he’s an excellent number two-hitter. If that’s where he lands, then perfect.
Expected round to draft: Sleeper. A reach would be anything earlier than the 10th round.
Justus Sheffield switched to a two-seam fastball in 2020, and it paid off well. The question for Sheffield is whether he’s ready to take the next logical step in his progression. If that happens, then Sheffield could be and stash player. One of many potential Mariner sleepers. He does have value in AL-only roto leagues, especially with ERA and possibly wins. The six-man rotation jeopardizes his usage in accumulative leagues.
Expected round to draft: Sleeper. He’s young. You should be able to draft him towards the tail end of your draft.
In dynasty formats, Jarred Kelenic is a top fifty pick. In 2021 rookie fantasy impact articles, he’s top five. The recent injury is a concern for when he’ll make his MLB debut, but as far as straight-up fantasy value for 2021, he’s a late-round stash-and-hope player.
There isn’t much value in his professional statistics, which will definitely raise questions about how effective he can be against major league pitching, especially with such a small sample size at AA in 2019. If Kelenic comes up and rakes, he’ll become a 5×5 star and likewise in accumulative leagues.
Expected draft position: NA. His draft position depends on the design of your league. In a dynasty league, he could go in the first four rounds. If it’s a traditional keeper league, then he could go in the first ten rounds. If it’s a yearly renew league, then consider him a sleeper.
Kyle Lewis has tremendous upside, and while this lower ranking will come as a shock to some of you, for fantasy baseball diehards, this is exactly where he should be. The biggest thing for Lewis is which month is he more like from 2020? August or September. Mariners’ fans want it to be August and will settle for consistency. For roto leagues, Lewis’ value is his potential power.
Expected round to draft: 17. Lewis has value as a team’s fourth or fifth outfielder but not as a starter. Because of his age and experience, reaching for him can certainly be justified, maybe as early as the 12th round. Any earlier, and you will be called a homer.
Seager is likely in the final year of his contract and should get a boost from that. Despite some of your favorite Mariners’ poor fantasy rankings, the offense in front of him has improved. That should make Seager a steal. The other thing to consider is how deep third base is this year for fantasy baseball purposes. You can sit on Seager for quite a while.
Expected round to draft: 16. As a backup third baseman, taking Seager in the 12th-16th rounds works.
Rafael Montero was rated all over the place, from as high as #111 to as low as out of the top 300. Closers are volatile fantasy baseball creatures. He’s not in complete control of his value. If the Mariners win more than they lose, Montero’s value improves. If they lose more than they win, then his value drops. He will be a source of saves, especially if he locks down the closer job.
Expected round to draft: 20. Montero is not one of the top 12 closers on the board, so unless Montero is necessary for your team, he’s a sleeper pick.
Haniger was a beast in 2018 (his last full season with the Mariners). He earned an All-Star nod and had a great season, but that was three years ago. He’s another Mariner with a high ceiling and puts up some really great numbers across the board, but he’s not an offensive player to build a fantasy team around. He’s a role player. In roto, expect him to have value in RBIs, maybe in home runs. In accumulative, he’ll have value so long as he’s healthy.
Expected round to draft: 14. A healthy Haniger for the entire season would make him extremely valuable. Due to his recent injury concerns, I wouldn’t draft him any earlier than the 12th round.
Welcome back, James Paxton. Big Maple’s value is in rotisserie baseball and not accumulative. Part of that value is because Paxton has had at least one stint on the injured list every season he has played at the Major League level. He has a much higher ceiling than Marco Gonzales but a much lower floor as well. When he’s on, Paxton can rack up strikeouts.
Expected round to draft: 13. Because Paxton has a tremendous upside, especially in Roto, it’s okay to reach for him in the seventh or eighth rounds, but not any earlier than that due to his injury concerns. It’s better to hold off on the big lefty in an accumulative league until the 11th round or later.
Marco Gonzales comes in as the top Seattle Mariners fantasy pick this year. All he does is win, and if 2021 is anything like 2020, then his value is still on the rise in the fantasy baseball world. He’s very consistent from month-to-month and will have good value in both styles of leagues.
Expected round to draft: 11. The first M’s player shouldn’t be taken until the 11th round. But here’s the thing, if you were to reach on him starting in the eighth round, you could do well. Gonzales’ Roto value is stronger than his head-to-head value. The Seattle Mariners’ six-man rotation hurts his H2H accumulative value.
Many publications and websites rely on historical data, which typically lags for teams on the rise (i.e., 2018 Atlanta Braves). Logan Gilbert would be a good sleeper. Yusei Kikuchi and Chris Flexen would be great draft-and-stash options. In dynasty leagues, Julio Rodriguez and Emmerson Hancock would be fantastic picks, as would George Kirby. If Taylor Trammell continues to tear up in spring, he could be an intriguing 2021 impact rookie option.
That’s it for the Seattle Mariners in the top 300 rankings. Let us know your thoughts in the comments section below or on social media.
Joe Swenson is a Writer, Director, Producer at www.brokenartsentertainment.com, host of the sports podcast, In The Clutch, available on YouTube.